Polling data: fact or fiction?

PHOENIX, Ariz. – At 6:30 p.m. yesterday, Dr. Bruce Merrill told a meeting sponsored by the Society of Professional Journalists that polls are “the most misused, most misunderstood tool in journalism and politics.” 

 

At 7 p.m., a new Merrill-directed Cronkite/Eight Poll was officially relased and revealed Republican John McCain’s 7 percent lead in Arizona over Democratic rival Barack Obama.  Home state support for McCain was down 3 percent from a similar August poll.

 

In his speech to the SPJ-sponsored audience, Merrill explained  sampling error and statistical equations and listed the reasons why polls cannot be used to determine who will win a presidential election.  At the top of the list was a poll’s representation of a snapshot in time.

 

Merrill’s poll, co-directed by Dr. Tara Blanc, was conducted over the weekend.  After Monday’s events on Wall Street, Merrill believes that the same poll taken yesterday would show a dead heat between McCain and Obama, within the margin of error.

 

“There’s no question that the breakdown of the economy is going to help Obama a lot, because the Republicans have been in office for the last seven years. Polling data supports the idea that people blame the Republicans much more than the Democrats for the financial crisis,” he said.

 

Sampling error, the undecided vote, and turnout also contribute to a poll’s inability to predict the next president.  According to Merrill, voter turnout should play the largest role in 2008.  If the 18 to 29-year-olds cast their ballots, Obama will win by a landslide.  On the other side, McCain may see a surge of voters from the religious right that could tip the scale in his favor.

 

“Presidential elections are decided by turnout and there’s not a pollster in the world who can predict who’s going to go to the polls.  I think it’s just crazy to try and predict that.”

 

The poll, which was also released overseas, surveyed 976 registered Arizona voters and also found significant polarization on both sides of the vote.  Numbers show that the state is divided on Sarah Palin’s ability to assume the role of president in the event that something should happen to McCain.  Obama’s strengths continue to be seen as the need for change and social issues, while McCain holds the advantage in experience and military background.

 

Merrill was the pollster for McCain’s first congressional race in 1982 when the current presidential hopeful earned a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.  A veteran in the polling industry, Merrill serves as Professor Emeritus at the Walter Cronkite School of Mass Communication where he established the media research program in the late 1980s.

Republic Exec confident in economy

PHOENIX, Ariz. – Tuesday’s stock market rebound of 485 points, the third highest in history, should come as no surprise to Arizona Republic Executive Editor Nicole Carroll.

 

A day prior, when the Dow Jones industrial average dropped a record breaking 778 points Monday, Carroll chose not to panic.   In fact, on the economically groundbreaking evening, she used her confidence in the nation’s ability to bounce back as the opening statement in an address to students at the Walter Cronkite School of Mass Communication at Arizona State University.

 

 “The biggest lesson is that we will come out of it,” said the 9-year Republic employee who earned her bachelor’s degree from the Cronkite School in 1991.  At the time of graduation, Carroll faced similar economic circumstances stemming from Black Monday, the 1987 stock market crash that claimed 22.6 percent of Dow Jones.

 

“The country came out of it.  The jobs came back and the innovation came back and that’s the biggest lesson I wanted to share with you: We will get through this too, even though it’s a really bad day.  The important thing is that we’re ready.”

 

 After 17 years in journalism, the reporter-turned-editor offered expertise advice to a group of 40 in the First Amendment Forum.  In response to the increasingly popular view that newspapers are becoming obsolete, Carroll emphasized that print journalism is neither a dinosaur nor a dying breed.  

 

 “There is a difference between readership and circulation,” she explained.  “Readership is up 6 percent from last year.  Between the paper and azcentral.com, we reach over 1.5 million people a day.  Our business model is pretty sound, it’s just the economy that’s giving us a ride right now and we can’t control that.”

 

 Freshman Cassidy Olson came to the forum not sure what to expect.  Growing up in Prescott, Olson had not been an avid reader of the Republic, but was interested in a print-editing career after graduation. 

 

 “I think this decline could have some positive effects on the news industry,” she said afterwards.  “The economy hits nearly everyone and more people are going to want to get as much news as possible on the situation.  I don’t think the situation should be taken lightly, but like Nicole, I am also sure that the economy will eventually recover. ”

 

Talk began to circulate mid-Tuesday that the Senate would hold a Wednesday night vote on a $700 billion bailout plan similar to the motion the House of Representatives rejected on Monday.  When it beame clear that the government was actively pursuing a solution to the financial crisis, the Dow Jones rose almost as quickly as it fell the day before, recovering nearly two-thirds of what it lost.  Carroll’s confidence seemed well-founded.

Tim McGuire, the Frank Russell Chair for the business of journalism at ASU, voiced a similar opinion. “I think that the future for journalism is very strong.  Look at what’s happened in the last 24 hours, as [Carroll] said.  I was just on an airplane and people had papers galore. People are tuned in to what’s happening; they’re very concerned.  Journalism is still the vast purveyor of information,” he said.

 

Carroll’s speech was a part of the Must See Monday series, a new initiative headed by Mike Wong, Cronkite career services director.  The series gives students access to successful professionals in journalism through a town hall style forum. 

           

“As the number two person at the Republic and an ASU alum, Nicole was a natural choice for this program,” said Wong.  “She’s had great experiences through her career and she knows her stuff.”

           

A Wednesday role call to adopt the bailout motion would not immediately cure the nation’s financial woes, but it would certainly cement credibility to Carroll’s confidence.